A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
